It will be interesting to see how the US will vote in the 2008 elections. I realize that many people see this very simplistically as a Democrat -vs- Republican issue, but these elections, in my opinion, may be shaping the next 20+ years of what will be happening in the USA, in terms of election politics.
Of particular interest will be the behavior of Democrats who were originally for Clinton and now have to decide whether to stay the party course or react to what is perceived by many of them as the unjust treatment of Hillary because she is a female. Many Democrats are talking about unity, and conformity, and all behind Obama, but *many* does not mean *all*. In my small sampling world, which I submit may not be a typical representation of the USA-at-large, opinions are split. There are still many Democrat Clinton supporters that feel slighted by the Obama camp, and by the democratic party, in general. As if losing the main primary contest to Obama, who was a virtual unknown was not enough, he didn't even pick Hillary as his VP. In fairness, Hillary may have been asked and refused the part - in preparation for another run in 2012, but her "on the ground" supporters don't know and don't really care about that. I am certain that some of them will vote against Obama for that reason, while others will vote against him because the Democratic party, a party that did not really support Hillary, tells them to vote for him - they will not conform!
Although, part of what happens may depend on Hillary's speech at the convention, tonight, in particular with reports that the Obama group is trying to have the touted roll-call, with Hillary's name in the hat, in secret, and out of the mail convention. That is bound to make Hillary supporters even more miffed at the Obama camp, and may backfire on Obama. Attempts to hide the roll-call and their public support for Hillary may eliminate their last chance to save face and may drive them to vote for McCain. And, we haven't even talked about Bill Clinton, who will be talking tomorrow and is already at great odds with the Obama campaign. It will be interesting to see if the "below-the-scene" shenanigans to hide the roll-call makes its way into his speech tomorrow.
Let's take a quick inventory of what is happening to Obama and the convention.
- Hillary Clinton supporters expected to have a public roll-call for nominees and save face by showing the party's support for their candidate. Then, they would vote for Obama. The Omaba camp is attempting to derail those efforts, which may push some Hillary supporters to McCain.
- These attempts for a secret roll-call may also affect Hillary's support and her speech at the convention.
- McCain is capitalizing on the "bad blood" between Hillary and Obama, and fielded his first ads of Hillary voters, going to the McCain camp.
- Bill Clinton has been upset with the Obama campaign all along, because they never gave him any credit for the 8 years he run this country. Many have tried to tell Obama that it would take *very little* effort to acknowledge that and bring Bill on-board 100%, but he hasn't listened, so it's anybody's guess how supportive Bill Clinton will be of Obama.
- Obama picks Biden (good choice), but it's not clear if that will give him enough on the "experience" front. Sure, Biden is a very experienced and achieved politician, and a good VP candidate, but Obama can't just "borrow" someone else's experience.
- Obama pisses off some in the gay community by being against gay marriage. A major gay media czar, Paul Colichman, publicly tears up his support check for Obama. That can't help Obama.
- Reports of Obama as a 60's radical by linking him to William Ayers are staring to surface, and Obama is publicly defending himself, but defense is very "energy" expensive and many times does not undo the damage done by first impressions of such reports.
The next couple of days will be very interesting for the Democrats. There is a good chance that the party will come undone at the seams. Many democrat leaders also realize that and are trying to what whatever they can to keep it together. Will they succeed? It's not an easy task, but we'll see.
Not that the Republicans can/will do any better. Their chance to mess it all up will come shortly, and at that time, I'll posting about them, too.
